Thursday, June 30, 2005

On the Dilemma Of the French..

France, as we all know, was once a world power. Their colonial empire was as big as the British. But things have changed considerably in the last hundred years and more so in the last fifty years. The more you look at French diplomats playing their part on the international scene and more you wonder about the size of their pomp and splendor.

Historically, France was the biggest country in Europe accounting for more than 1/5th of European population. Today France is beset by abysmally low birth rates and abysmally high life expectancy( 80.5 years). A country with GDP barely topping a trillion dollars, a growth rate which just exceeds 1% and a huge old-age population( which comes with big social security costs). The industry is primarily industrial which by its very nature is low growth and very capital intensive.

Coming back to the point, why are French diplomats so vocal about the problems they have? I got my answer when I read Kissinger's classic,Diplomacy. Kissinger has a very simple answer to the French Dilemma. The defining moment in French diplomacy and in general, for pre-war world powers of Europe was the Suez Canal crisis. Britain in 1957 happened to be the other accomplice of France along with Israel and they understood their role in the future world well. They would toe American line from thereon and get some concessions of their own. And French decided to champion the cause of Europe and become the de facto leader of Europe because they initiated the concept.

I believe that France has done well to carve out a niche for itself as a Western power that tries to exercise control over unhindered American influence. From that perspective, in the modern era of Anti-Americanism, Britain has been a big loser on the world stage. I also think that one area in which French and US can collaboarte is the United Nations. A lot of places where trouble is happening right now were French colonies and France, along with American and NATO millitary power, can play a bigger role in solving African crisis.

No comments: